A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
